Making janlokpal most productive for people of india

Transforming Political office –stock of highest private return to a stock of highest public return – through Janlokpal movement

Keypoint: Janlokpal movement for strong lokpal bill is very very important but underutilization of  its potential. Also real lokpal bill may never happen with a narrow focus on demand for lokpal bill since our gametheory approach shows no payoff to a corrupt regime if it cooperates in creating strong lokpal bill (coz no one signs its own death warrant)

Sujat Kamal ( to be read with earlier note on Game theory approach to lokpal)

Potential and hidden value of Janlokpal India against corruption

• Elections can be fought and won on shoe string budgets-thereby catalyzing electoral reforms

• Change of Maximum/unimaginable economic value can be had with relatively minimal effort- just by focusing vote on single agenda Corruption not rhetoric

• Other governance reforms (police,judicial, transparency in large government contracts )of high but difficult to impute value will be easier to push through

• Focusing janlokpal only for lokpal bill is very very important, but would be underutilization of  Janlokpals huge potential.While lokpal bill will be a big addition towards anticorruption reform, large % of corrupt politicians and billions stolen every year, limited resources of lokpal under most generous assumptions  means politician, bureaucrats will still take risk just as athletes take risk with performance drugs hoping to escape detection given huge payoffs (see appendix/annexure 1 on payoff under various reform situations. C and D are related since with fewer corrupt politicians,other matching complementary anticorruption reforms may be easy to get through)

• Janlokpal movement’s fullest value will become available to public when it can clean up loksabha of corrupt MPs-more the better or hope for a civil war. This is possible because of its votebank potential (Do Janlokpal followers in some cities approach average votes polled for loksabha MPs?- if yes how many, how much gap remains in other cities?)

What should Janlokpal movement do?

• As payoff matrix below shows-lokpal bill may be  easier to pass when fewer corrupt politicians are in power, power of lokpal bill would be greater fewer the percentage of corrupt politicians-Hence important to create voice in the parliament .Catalyzing effect of getting 2-3 dozen Clean MPs in parliament should not be underestimated.  In extreme situation even with a strong lokpal bill but  all 548 corrupt MPs, very few MPs will get punished
• Focus on consolidating peoples awareness into a single point Votebank-key word will always be Corruption- it hurts everyone
• Develop and track followers database by city or narrower aggregation unit to work out possibility of electing its approved Candidates- 40/548 seems feasible while over 100 would be ambitious but doabale. Data base collected should dictate strategy
• Develop model pledge (see Annexure 2) for its approved anticorruption candidates
• Use celebrity  power to increase and focus power of janokpal into a single votebank. (urban areas may be easier to win where certain established politicians have destroyed their own political image)
• Create and on-lend its symbol/other resources  to chosen candidates for electioneering magnetically drawing votes from “anticorruption Vote-bank” for specified time (till elections won or until MP violates code of conduct )
• Let us all become ambassadors by garnering/focusing votes of our colleagues/staff/friends/relatives on Corruption-India’s only problem
• Other ideas??????

Annexure 1:

Payoff to corrupt politicians under various reforms situations

Matrices below shows what a corrupt politician gets if his crime is detected or not detected. A corrupt politician can be risk taker or risk averse. For purpose of demonstration we assume a complete risk averse corrupt politician

Scenario A: Corrupt country dominated by politician as in a banana republic/dictatorship-everyone in power is corrupt and risk taker

	Non detection	detection
Corrupt and complete risk averse	0	0
Corrupt and risk taker	100	0

Scenario B1: Corrupt country with strong lokpal bill and many corrupt politicians (India is here??)

	Non detection	detection
Corrupt and complete risk averse	0	0
Corrupt and risk taker	100	20*

*Combination of many corrupt politicians and huge black income means conditional expected income (due to low chance of being caught in pool of loads of  bad fish) is still positive ,will decline as nos of corrupt politicians in parliament declines

Scenario B2: Corrupt country with strong lokpal bill and many corrupt politicians (India may be here shortly if lokpal succeeds)

	No detection	detection
Corrupt and complete risk averse	0	0
Corrupt and risk taker	90	-20

Scenario C: Corrupt country with strong lokpal bill and fewer corrupt politicians if Janlokpal approved and screened candidates get in parliament

	Non detection	detection
Corrupt and risk averse	0	0
Corrupt and risk taker	70	-50

Scenario D: Corrupt country with strong lokpal bill and fewer corrupt politicians and governance reforms and transparency facilitated by janlokpal voice in parliament

	Non detection	detection
Corrupt and risk averse	0	0
Corrupt and risk taker	30	-50

Annexure 2:

Model pledge for anticorruption movement supported MPs

• MPs agree to disclose income and assets at time of seeking Janlokpal blessings and every six months after being elected MP/MLA
• Agree to disclose jobs accepted giving 50% or more increment to any member of family including nieces, nephews
• Agree to disclose biz contracts and values involved-signed by wider family, new business entered
• Agree to disclose names of parties offering any monetary inducements for favours before (any sting operation etc reveals such information)
• Agree to donate at first 2-6 months income for advertising purposes-for and against his /her performance report card
• Agree to push anti corruption reforms in parliament
• Will not joining any party without written consent of janlokpal
• Will not accept any ministerial post/other similar posts without approval of janlokpal
• No replies given by janlokpal within x week will constitute approval
• Agree to make public any information public if not censured under Government Secrecy Act
• Push multipronged reforms agenda and communicate in public/media roadblock/people blocking such reforms
• Agree to sign and reply to annual performance reports
•  

Revisiting game theory based prediction of Lokpal bill/anti-corruption reforms

Will govt ever sign a credible Lokpal bill-Game theory approach to Lokpal bill

this article was posted via scribd.com on www.twitter.com/sujatkamal9 on June 4 by a coincidence the night before attack on Ramdev hunger strike at ramlila grounds

Lokpal bill and Black money: Why we may be looking down the barrel of Anarchy and new political structure before real lokpal bill emerges

Civil society options→ Politicians ↓options	Moderate stance	Aggressive stance
Delay	Fizzle out or dud version of  lokpal	Violence, anarchy, loss of power but not necessarily leading to lokpal bill
Cooperate	Weak version of lokpal bill( loss of black political income)	harsh version of lokpal bill (loss of wealth,income,luxuries)

1 it should be clear that politicians will play the “delay” version as it leads to best outcomes. Even with loss of power under “ delay-aggressive stance”

2. With full cooperation by politicians it is a dead end for them . Since loss of income, wealth ensues added with punishment. And eventual loss of power, jail term since they may be disqualified from contesting. Hence cooperation comes with no benefit absolutely unless provision is made to implement lokpal bill prospectively.

3. Politicians best hope is moderate stance of civil society. However given the transparency in its conduct, constitution of people involved, bribing civil society is not an option. But moderate stance is ruled out since Lokpal bill mooted by Govt itself was moderate and present response of civil society is reaction to a dud lokpal bill drafted/proposed by government

4. Hence we are looking at two possible outcomes. A. Violence, escalating anarchy. B. Elections that will throw up different political structure of new set of service oriented MPs. It is likely in next elections we may see many more new faces if present on/off agitation stretches for few months before one of UPA partners pulls the plug. This is the opportunity that people must grab since it is better to have a political set up where Lokpal is never needed.

5. We may be looking at 2 year process culminating in dramatic changes in India’s governance structure /commitment. (Astrologically also we are also looking at dramatic changes in next 2 years starting now).So don’t be fooled 2^nd time by Governments nod on lokpal bill

Corruption in India and Lessons from Egypt

1. Corruption in India at the highest levels should be our biggest concern. because it is like cancer, because it kills efficiency,enterprise, people's morale,our global competitiveness and worse and  this may be the worst part- greed bows before nationalism,national concerns and hence opens and ma have already opened India to breach of security, breaching its treasures. Our history of last few centuries is witness to that.

2. Without peoples collective effort, without new leadership this does not look possible to fight the high & mighty corrupt nexus of politicians, Bureaucrats, buisnessmen, some or many of whom may be foreign stooges

3. People of Egypt have shown that with peoples collective effort change is possible in short time. They changed regime. We need to change the mindset of regime in power- with relentless use of every possible tools and talents at our disposal - in which internet will prove the most cohesive medium....

Towards developing People's Anti-Corruption Forum, Agenda & Actionable Plan

Fighting corruption especially in higher echelons of society which in my view lies in terms of decreasing order of priority in the political, bureaucracy, justice system and business set up ( and the nexus of these) ( there is of course the real crime world which feeds and is fed by these) is big task even for powerful and honest politicians. But there is no alternative and no power that can match the combined force of people to make rapid changes. While a more coherent action plan involving People Participation should be evolved here is list of "to do things" that will help to build climate for people to come together and act.




















































1. When all things are thought through, political reform must be the MOST IMPORTANT. To be positive we should not call anything wishful thinking but we must ask what we can do to prevent corrupt politicians from coming to power and taking any important position ( List OF 20 steps we can take?)













































2. CVC being very limited in effectiveness( even it may be open to "influence"). PMO must have website where under various "fields" people can feed inputs on names, issues.Such a website will show up most frequent names and issues raised and action taken by Govt and lack of action will become"fodder" for media during election time. Maybe Supreme Court could make it mandatory.













































3. electronic filing of FIRs with one authority given responsibility to deliver it to appropriate Police Station. Such website will deliver receipt no and be deemed delivered.( we assume police cannot operate the system, and emails not acceptable. It may involve a small fees and no fees for those with ration card nos, UID card -(somebody to help in writing FIRs-NGOs etc)













































4. In next 12 months people must organize anti corruption demo in New Delhi and major cities by turn every 3-6 months. (secret ballot will allow people to post agenda/issues/names anonymously that can be taken up by media/NGOs)













































5 Has there been any media conference to develop anti corruption strategy? A Report Card System discussed frequently (not just in election time) on politicians, bureaucrats, and possibly judges













































6. if all educated people allot few minutes every month to write to media,PM building pressure on Govt for action













































7. Finally( for time being) anti crime terror website can make huge profits to fund whisteblower activity, protect whistleblowers better than any Bills/Acts, catalyze changes, also help fight crime/terror internationally and helping build "Value Added Communities" cutting across nations and states,religion etc







added



8. Sub blogs/website/ in public domain where people of constituency can submit lists ( some or many will be unreseaonable to their MPs







9. Spiritual Gurus wil have their ways. But I wonder why there is no course to equip people to be anti corruption agents(change agents) when they enter Labour force in next 10-20 years.

Where is the Information on Corruption related Stats?

Does anyone one source of Data on various forms of corruption in India. I am sure World Bank, ADB would have done numerous studies. Joint Public Response is possible without great research but various levels of persusuasions at various Fora require that such information direct the strategy of people working against Corruption for gestaest effectiveness. It should be obvious that we should direct most of our energies that towards most Retrograde forms of corruption and thesemay  mostly exist at highest levels of authority

Comments welcome