Will govt ever sign a credible Lokpal bill-Game theory approach to Lokpal bill

this article was posted via scribd.com on www.twitter.com/sujatkamal9 on June 4 by a coincidence the night before attack on Ramdev hunger strike at ramlila grounds

Lokpal bill and Black money: Why we may be looking down the barrel of Anarchy and new political structure before real lokpal bill emerges

Civil society options→ Politicians ↓options	Moderate stance	Aggressive stance
Delay	Fizzle out or dud version of  lokpal	Violence, anarchy, loss of power but not necessarily leading to lokpal bill
Cooperate	Weak version of lokpal bill( loss of black political income)	harsh version of lokpal bill (loss of wealth,income,luxuries)

1 it should be clear that politicians will play the “delay” version as it leads to best outcomes. Even with loss of power under “ delay-aggressive stance”

2. With full cooperation by politicians it is a dead end for them . Since loss of income, wealth ensues added with punishment. And eventual loss of power, jail term since they may be disqualified from contesting. Hence cooperation comes with no benefit absolutely unless provision is made to implement lokpal bill prospectively.

3. Politicians best hope is moderate stance of civil society. However given the transparency in its conduct, constitution of people involved, bribing civil society is not an option. But moderate stance is ruled out since Lokpal bill mooted by Govt itself was moderate and present response of civil society is reaction to a dud lokpal bill drafted/proposed by government

4. Hence we are looking at two possible outcomes. A. Violence, escalating anarchy. B. Elections that will throw up different political structure of new set of service oriented MPs. It is likely in next elections we may see many more new faces if present on/off agitation stretches for few months before one of UPA partners pulls the plug. This is the opportunity that people must grab since it is better to have a political set up where Lokpal is never needed.

5. We may be looking at 2 year process culminating in dramatic changes in India’s governance structure /commitment. (Astrologically also we are also looking at dramatic changes in next 2 years starting now).So don’t be fooled 2^nd time by Governments nod on lokpal bill